First Guessing: Covering 2nd Base Late in the Game

The Phillies blew a 7-1 lead yesterday. The tying run scored in such a manner that only the supremely frustrating Phillies could pull off: a first-to-home on a weak grounder to short.

Jimmy Rollins left his position to cover second on a David Wright steal. I damn near fell out of my seat when I saw Rollins retracing his steps as the ball trickled past his starting spot. Rollins should not have been covering second, nor should have Utley. Wright should have been given second base, even though he's the tying run in the 9th inning.

The count was 0-2. There were 2 outs. This was the end of the game, down to the final strike with the closer ready to bury Murphy with a fastball.

IF the pitch was a strike, it would either be game over or a ball in play.

IF the pitch was a ball, was Chooch even going to throw to second? The image above comes just after contact, and Chooch is on his knees. Normally, he pops out of his stance ready to throw, only to realize he doesn't have the ball. We see runners given second base all the time late in games, and I'm leaning towards that being Chooch's mindset here.

Let's consider a few factors:

• David Wright successfully steals bases at a 76% rate for his career, and was 11 for 12 this season going into that attempt. 
• If Wright were to be thrown out, it would be a disastrous, game-ending decision. He was probably confident in his chances.
• Papelbon has a turtle's pace to the plate.
• The pitch must be a ball (harder to throw someone out).
• Chooch has a career 28% caught stealing rate.

I'm estimating Wright steals that base successfully at least 85% of the time. That's being conservative.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon, who is having an All-Star caliber season as the closer, has two-strikes on an average hitter. Papelbon gets Murphy out in that spot the majority of the time.

By covering, Rollins increases Murphy's chance of getting a hit on a ball put in play, which is likely since there are two strikes and he'll be protecting (especially since he got caught looking his previous at-bat).

Ben Revere fails to pick up a slowly rolling baseball on perfectly manicured grass, allowing Wright to get from third to home. Ho hum.

We feel ya, Papelbon.

If the count is 0-0, throw the guy out. There's a much smaller likelihood that the ball is put in play. In that spot, you can't freely allow the tying run get into scoring position with two outs.

With an 0-2 count, let him have the base and get the hitter out. Fundamentals, playing the percentages, doing the little things - whatever you want to call it, the Phillies don't do it and it's one big reason they're three games under .500.

Episode 16 - "Papelblowin' the Season Away"

In Episode 16, Jon & Chris discuss Papelbon's comments, blown saves, Game 7 of the NBA Finals, and which Phillies player you'd want to have a beer with.

A Selective Ryan Howard is a Dangerous Hitter

No Phillies player has a lower contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone than Ryan Howard - and it's not close (43.3% to Mayberry's 55.8%). No National League player tops Ryan Howard in this specific case of futility. Howard also sees fewer strikes than any other Phillies hitter.

These stats back up what we already know about Howard: he seems to make up his mind to swing or not before the pitch is thrown, he rarely hits non-strikes hard, he rarely gets strikes, therefore he rarely hits the ball hard, rarely walks, and often strikes out. Something like that, right?

Tonight, Phillies fans saw a different Ryan Howard. It helps when the opposing pitcher leads the league in HR allowed, but it also helps to swing mostly at hittable pitches. The first Vine (sorry for the poor quality) displays Howard seeing six pitches and only swinging at one off the plate.


He went down in the count 0-2 after being ahead of a changeup (but it was a strike, so that's kind of okay at this point - baby steps). He battled the rest of the way and eventually got a fastball up in the zone and crushed it for a home run.

Howard's second AB, shown below, shows Howard going from 1-0 to 1-2 to a walk.


The two pitches that he swung at were likely off the plate, and all three balls that he swung at in his first two at-bats were thigh-high and a few inches inside. For some reason he loves that pitch this season, but I'm not sure why as it's either going to be a swing & miss, pulled foul, or dribbled into the shift. He hasn't shown the bat speed in 2013 to turn on that pitch and hit it over the fence.

Regardless, the result of Howard's patience, laying off four pitches outside the strike zone, including three in a row and the last one looked like a typical Howard strike-out pitch, was a walk. Walks, despite what Ruben Amaro Jr. says, lead to runs and this lineup can use them any way they can get them.

It's too early to declare Howard's power to be back, and we'd be naive to think he's changed his approach at the plate - after all, Haren couldn't be more perfect to hit. But, perhaps we're looking at progress, perhaps as fans we can hope change is occurring. If Ryan Howard has this approach every night, he will be a force in the lineup, even if not 100%, because hitting strikes are fun, and walking is even better.

Episode 15 - "The Long-Awaited iTunes Debut"

In this episode, Jon & Chris discuss the Phillies' dreadful stretch, the progress of Ben Revere, the young arms in the bullpen, and the idea of CP3/Superman teaming up.

Evaluating Jonathan Pettibone's Long-Term Upside

I walked from my apartment to Coors Field today, legitimately excited to see Jonathan Pettibone pitch live as I had already worked on his scouting report and seeing him live would add the final pieces to my article.

7 runs and 3 innings later, I had seen enough. Every pitch was roped. Every hit, out, and foul ball was hit hard. His command fell apart completely, leaving pitch after pitch up in the zone and out over the plate. Rockies hitters wore out the right-center gap all afternoon and each ball shot that way was on a line. No floaters or long fly balls that barely landed behind Revere - nope, they were all bullets.

Pettibone's last two outings have been poor, but they are only two outings and judgment must be reserved for a larger sample size. Despite today's unpleasant line, he still has a respectable 4.40 ERA and has posted high percentage of quality starts. So, the question is - just how good can Jonathan Pettibone be?

Jonathan Pettibone has the height, arm strength, and mental fortitude to get hitters out. He's at the stage of a pitcher's career when he must re-evaluate his arsenal and improve it. His current stuff earned him a Major League stint and showed fans and management that there is long-term potential in his arm. But, it isn't good enough to be a contributor on a contender. Don't tell me what his ERA or WHIP is. Don't tell me he's a gamer for getting out of an infinite number of jams.

Let me know when he can throw a pitch that breaks in to a lefty - because without one, he's a spot starter at best.

Pettibone's fastball has above average movement, and when combined with a 91-92mph velocity, it makes for a quality pitch. The devastating two-seamers that start eight inches off the plate and backdoor to get the outside corner are typically high-80s. Pettibone doesn't throw this Brandon Webb-type two-seamer, but this pitch he throws to McCutcheon is 93mph with excellent downward action and slight bend back towards the plate. It's a difficult pitch to hit that a hitter must respect in all counts.

As he develops better command and fractionally higher velocity and greater horizontal movement, this can be a plus pitch.

Pitching off his fastball, Pettibone's changeup has similar action to the two-seamer with nearly identical horizontal break and sizable 7mph gap in velocity. With a 1-1 count and a man on base, Pettibone makes an excellent pitch to Brandon Phillips, starting a changeup off the plate and getting an aggressive swinger to not only chase but also open up early and pop up.

Pettibone can potentially feature two plus pitches that break in to righties and can be thrown in any count to any batter. This is a positive start.

But that's about where the ga-ga ends. His two other pitches are really one pitch at varying speeds, which is exemplified by PitchF/X (a computer designed to be extremely precise on pitches) being unable to distinguish between the cutter and the slider. The Pitch Movement Chart showcases how the cutter doesn't cut and the slider doesn't slide. They are vertical drop pitches only, and that is not good enough.

I can only claim the above pitch as a cutter and not a slider by it's velocity (87mph). In theory, that is the perfect location and result for a cutter. Up and in to a righty, break a bat and get a pop-up. But the cutter needs to start a few more inches inside and come back to that spot.

Another cutter (I know it's 3-2, but can we set up not right down the middle? The pitcher hits his spot and it's the worst spot to throw the pitch), this pitch has a quick, late drop to it that could be effective as... dare I say it... a sinker! That's all this pitch is. It's a sinker. But as a cutter, it will be thrown higher in the zone and the slider will be thrown lower.

If Pettibone is unable to develop a pitch that breaks in to righties, he should become a two-system pitcher. The first is a fastball/changeup system and the second is a sinker/slider system. The big change he needs to make, aside from keeping the sinker down in the zone, is slowing down the slider/making it a hard curveball.

It's key to retain a certain velocity gap with pitches that have similar action. Currently, if a batter swings as if the pitch is a cutter/sinker, but it's actually a slider, he can still make quality contact. A few mph slower with a bit more movement both vertically and horizontally, the slider can be an effective out pitch for a hitter looking or seeing sinker.

With that, Pettibone has four pitches with average movement and average velocity. I believe he can become a #3 pitcher, but only if he makes significant changes to his game. If he keeps the same pitches that he currently throws and just tries to improve them, he will be a #5 starter in the mold of the former Kyle Kendrick.

Ideally, Pettibone would work on these changes in AAA and focus on his command and plan of attack. With the Phillies, he'll always have a main focus of getting guys out right now, which forces him to throw what he's comfortable with - and that is the type of development track that yields spot starters who never make long-term improvements.

Praising Cliff Lee's Curveball and Fixing His Changeup

Cliff Lee has not only been one of the bright spots of the 2013 Phillies, but he's one of only four players that can be trusted for a good start, at-bat, or appearance (Brown, Papelbon, Kendrick).

Among NL pitchers, Lee ranks 3rd in WAR and 2nd in IP with a 2.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and .223 BA against. Those marks will certainly earn him an All-Star nod and depending on how the next month goes for the beleaguered Phillies - a trip to a contender.

The most amazing part of the incredibly passionate Phillies fan/Cliff Lee love affair is the lack of admiration for his curveball. In the 2011 and 2012 seasons, Lee's curve yielded a .151 AVG and .232 SLG. This season, it's been the decisive pitch in 31 at-bats, 17 of which are strikeouts. We go crazy for Hamels' changeup, but Lee's curve is just another pitch. What gives, Philly?

Lee's dominance can be partly explained by his Pitch Movement Chart. Considering 7.8% of his pitches are curveballs, we can easily say he has five pitches that hit three of the four quadrants.

Again, Lee's curveball has been spectacular, registering an 18.8% whiff rate (% of swings that don't make contact), .226 AVG, and a gorgeous arc on the PMC. When right-handed hitters have two strikes, they must be prepared for all five pitches - one of the reasons his curveball is so effective. While other pitchers rely on an 'out pitch' with two strikes, Lee can throw anything, leaving a defensive hitter almost unable to make quality contact (only his changeup allows a BA over .182 with two strikes to righties).

The most amazing aspect of Lee's superb 2013 performance is the lack of success from his changeup, a pitch he throws 14% of the time.

That changeup posts a .296 AVG and .426 SLG. While you can argue that he should throw it less, you can also argue that its mere existence creates more confusion for the hitter, making the other four pitches more effective. Lee hasn't thrown his curveball to a righty in any 3-ball count this season, relying on his two-seam (34), changeup (15), and cutter (7). Take away the changeup and a hitter knows they're getting 91mph tailing right or 87mph cutting left. Mix in 84mph with similar action to the two-seamer but with more drop and tail and we've got a hitter guessing - but not off-balance.

Lee's changeup averages 84.9mph. His four-seam and two-seam both average 91.3mph and his cutter averages 87.5mph. He throws five pitches, but four of them are within 6.4mph of each other. If Lee's changeup were to go from 84.9 to 82.9 with the same arm action and movement (likely more movement with the slower speed), he would likely see better results.

The only Phillies with a smaller velocity gap between fastball and changeup are Antonio Bastardo (he never throws it), Roy Halladay (was hurt/sucked), John Lannan, and Chad Durbin (he really sucked).

Cole Hamels, who boasts one of the best changeups in baseball, throws a 92.3mph fastball and 84.7mph changeup (7.6mph difference). But it's Lee, whose changeup is far from one of the best, who gets more horizontal movement and nearly as much vertical drop as Hamels. The only chartable difference is the velocity gap.

Fooling a hitter only to have him still hit the pitch hard because it wasn't slow enough - even though its entire purpose is to be slow enough - is quite frustrating.

(Cliff Lee Heat Map 2013 - Changeups to RHH - Catcher's POV - Fangraphs.com)

First, Lee rarely throws his changeup to lefties (3% of pitches, 17% to righties). So, I'm only going to analyze right-handed hitters.

Second, location is an issue. Even though he hardly throws it on the inner-half or upper-half, where change-ups go to die, righties are still hitting .300 off it.

Only 28.7% of his changeups to righties end up being a ball. That's absurdly low. And poor strategy. And it needs to drastically change.

Nibble with the change. Keep it on the outer or lower black or off the plate. We all know how much he loves to throw strikes, but it's too his own detriment with this particular pitch. Only his cutter sees more of the plate than his change. If your worst pitch sees more of the plate than almost any other, get it off the plate.

That part of the heat map where it's yellow - just above the bottom of the zone and just inside the right edge - needs to be on the black lines. It's not asking too much. It's a necessity for an 84mph pitch in Major League Baseball.

Also, 177 of his 192 changeups have come with 0, 1, or 2 balls to the batter. He can throw that pitch off the plate without it being a walk - but he still throws it for a strike.

Would nibbling and thus throwing more balls throw off his entire game? Or would it make him even more effective by hiding his worst pitch and making it better? I'd sure like to see it play out.

I did a chart for Lee's zone usage and statistics. This doesn't have much relevance to his off-speed pitches, but I did it and thought you may find it useful anyway - so here you go.

Analyzing Ben Revere's Jumps and Slides

After Ben Revere took a 3-1 pitch in the opening inning, he stood in the batter's box for a second, turned to the umpire, and all but said "are you sure that's a ball cuz it looked pretty good to me." When the soon-to-be plunked home plate umpire remained motionless for a full two seconds after the pitch, Revere finally decided to toss his bat and trot to first base.

A leadoff walk followed by a stolen base - it's what Phillies fans have been dreaming of for decades.

Revere eventually gets greedy and is caught stealing at third - an atrocity we will discuss in a moment - but first, let's analyze Revere's jumps.

Believe it or not, Revere successfully steals second base on this pitch. Jacob Turner reaches the apex of his leg kick and Revere has yet to get out his stance. He hasn't moved a muscle.

Another image from the top of the leg kick, you can see just how far Revere has to go and how much time he's wasted.

For reference, this is Jacoby Ellsbury getting his 5th steal against the Phillies on May 30th. At the top of Stutes' leg kick, Ellsbury explodes out of his stance and swings his torso towards second base. This is a world-class sprinter who knows how to get out of the blocks (82.6% career SB%). Revere just has world-class speed (79.3% career SB%).

Turner is well on his way to plate, yet Revere's feet are in the same place they were when the pitcher began his motion. Comparing the first few images, you can argue that first baseman Casey Kotchman (a big fella who isn't running) moves further than Revere.

I've already mentioned that Revere is safe on the play, mostly due to his incredible speed and a fortunate pitch that handcuffed the catcher.

I'm always fascinated by Revere's slides. Last night, it was a head first doozy into second base to break up a double play that lead to an interference call and the wrath of Philadelphia being bestowed upon umpire Bob Davidson. Who slides head first to break up a double play?

This particular slide requires Revere to power through the second baseman's left leg all while having his head pointed to right field and presumably his eyes closed. Completely blind, he must slide through a human being who's intently trying to not let him do that. Luckily for Revere, this second baseman is a Marlin. Dietrich allows Revere to knock his leg back and the throw comes late - safe!

The bad jump and the power slide through a bag-blocking fielder work out for Revere. This time...

It's tough to see exactly what Revere is doing on this play, but I can assure you that he attempts to steal third. He currently has not moved even though Turner is at the height of his leg kick. We've seen this before.

Should the runner wait to make sure the pitcher doesn't do a slow-move before running? In the first inning, with a 2-0 count on the batter and 0 outs, he should only steal if he has knowledge on this pitcher. He has to know tendencies and Turner's look pattern to make this attempt. He has to know Turner never slow-moves. To be thrown out here is the type of deed that gets Twitter all in a tizzy.

As the ball leaves Turner's hand, Revere hasn't gotten very far. I can't stress enough how bad of a decision it is to steal third here. This is a move to make when there is 1 out and the bottom of the order up, so a fly ball can score the runner. Not with 0 outs. Not in this situation. When Revere gets thrown out, both Chris Wheeler and the Marlins' announcer chastise the decision.

This time, the bad jump costs Revere. The ball easily beats him to the bag and it takes a nice outside slide to make it a bang-bang play.

Video of the third base steal attempt can be found here.

On a cold October night against a playoff team with a more courageous second baseman and a better catcher, I don't have confidence in Ben Revere to steal a base. He's one of the fastest players in the league. He's the fastest Phillie in a very long time. Yet I'd rather see Rollins on the move. I've seen Revere slide off the bag multiple times, get terrible jumps, and make too many poor decisions to say he's the guy I want to jump-start the offense with a stolen base. I don't know what Davy Lopes taught to get this team of above-average runners to lead the league in SB%, but Revere needs some of that magic, and it's on Rollins, a leader and a product of that system, to teach Revere how to be better.

Rollins? A leader? Playoffs? I know... crazy talk.

Episode 14 - "World .500 Champs"

Delmon Young isn't doing the little things right, either

Juan Pierre was the leadoff batter for the Marlins tonight. As evident by his .277 slugging percentage this season and 18 career home runs, he's not exactly a power hitter.

The above SS comes during a Pierre floater to right field. About one second after contact, Delmon Young is still in the shade. He's nearly at the warning track. The pitch speed is on the scoreboard, Pettibone is off the mound completely, yet Delmon is still in the shade!

It's a bit blurry, but that thing right below Delmon's right foot - that's the baseball landing in the middle of right field. Longitude and latitude coordinates of the exact center of right field. And that dark area about 14 feet behind him, that's the shade - where he just was 5 minutes ago when the ball was hit.

Does Delmon review the scouting reports before the game? Has he ever heard of or seen Juan Pierre? Move in! After watching Delmon play, it's easy to note that he doesn't like going back on a fly-ball. Every player is more comfortable going certain directions, but he has to play the percentages and take away the bloop single. When you hit .216 and are a liability in the field, you have to do every little thing possible to give yourself an advantage. Positioning yourself correctly is one of those things. Tonight, it would have erased two hits.

This SS is from the top of the 5th. Juan Pierre steps into the batter's box and this is the defensive formation that we see. There are two possibilities here:

1) The scouting report for Pierre is that he bloops it to left and center and smashes it to right #ChollyBall.

2) Delmon Young has no clue what is happening #RubenBall.

Pierre floats a spinner out to right that hangs up forever and lands in the heart of right field, and Delmon takes it on one hop. Let's note that there is a runner on second, and he should be playing slightly more shallow to give himself a better chance to throw the runner out at home. Considering that and Pierre's 14 year track record of never hitting it over a right fielder's head - move in!

I'll also quickly point out Delmon's positioning in image #3 compared to image #4. He appears to be able to move 14 feet - no more, no less - in any one direction for a low hanging fly-ball.

Answer: #RubenBall

Images from MLB.tv

June 3rd - Phillies vs Marlins - Video Notes

Here are Chris' notes from last night's game:

Ryan Howard just fielded the ball, but before it even gets to his glove, Kyle Kendrick is already pointing to first base, presumably shouting "One! One! Don't throw it!" If a pitcher is willing to allow a runner to reach scoring position even though it looks like an easy play, you know what he thinks of Howard's tailing two-seamer to second base.

To Howard's credit, he's been much better throwing the ball this year (except for that time he chose not to throw the ball because he also has no confidence in Ryan Howard's throwing abilities). Kyle Kendrick doesn't care - he's seen this play go wrong too many times.

Inspired by Kendrick's triple (and thousands of fans who are already running him out of town), Ben Revere swings at this 1-0 fastball and hits it between third and short (infield in) for an RBI single.

As nice as it was to see him pick up an RBI, dude - what the hell are you swinging at? You're ahead in the count 1-0 with a guy on 3rd with less than 2 outs. What's the old adage? "Look for a pitch you can drive." For Ben, I guess that's belly button high on the outside corner.

At this moment, with the ball halfway to the plate, one of the 50 people behind home plate needs to be standing with their arms raised in home-run celebration. It's inevitable at this point. Also, red shirt right behind home plate is just checking out some breasts.

Still no one standing?! Yo green shirt, get your ass up and recognize a hanging curveball that's now on it's way over the fence! Red shirt is still mesmerized by boobies. Now, I know major league pitchers throw hard, and not much time has passed from image 1 to image 2, but that guy is working on quite the stare down. We aren't witnessing a glance here.

You can say it's a pitch Dom should've crushed, but I give him credit here. He has 2 strikes on him with a runner on 2nd and 0 outs. He simply wants to pull the ball, make a productive out, and let the next guy knock him in, who is Delmon Young, so Dom makes the adjustment mid-pitch that he's the only person capable of driving in this runner.

He sees a mistake, and he drills it. That's what good hitters do, and Dom Brown has become a damn good hitter.

I see you Freddy, hustling out of the box to earn a triple, getting a fantastic jump off the bat (1 out, going on contact)...

And making a fantastic slide around the catcher to beat the throw (who got more aroused, red shirt from above or Wheels for a feet-first slide at home?).

Galvis hasn't hit as well as we'd like, but he's had some clutch hits and extra base hits. He's stepping out on every pitch - definitely a problem, but a fixable one. It's his defense, hustle, and baseball IQ that will make him an everyday major league player.  I'm not sending him to the Hall of Fame already - I'm just saying he's going to be an average to above average starter.

Images from MLB.tv

Episode 13 - "The Unsinkable Domonic Brown"

Michael Martinez is on a Major League Roster (Fireable Offense #725)

I don't blame Michael Martinez for making the final out in yesterday's game. He shouldn't be on the roster (Ruben Amaro Jr.), and he should never get an AB (Charlie Manuel). The result when these two preposterous scenarios happen?

 

Martinez, in the bottom of the 9th with runners on 1st & 2nd and 2 outs, doesn't deliver. Again, I don't blame him for this. How can you blame a career .188 hitter for not getting a hit?

So, how did we get to this moment in time?

First, for Martinez to be in this situation, he must be on the team, an honor most organizations make players earn.

In 2011, Mini-Mart played in 88 games (more than half), getting 234 plate appearances (sizable) and hit .196 (not good).  That performance obviously earned him a spot on the 2012 roster.

In 2012, Mini-Mart played in 45 games, getting 122 plate appearances, and hit .174 (that's somehow .022 worse than 2011). Conventional wisdom would say that .196 and .174 over two seasons in which the sample size is plenty high enough is a showing that would prevent a player from ever playing major league baseball again.

But, here we are. Mini-Mart is on the roster as chosen by GM Ruben Amaro Jr., which is enough of a reason for him to be fired. By having Martinez on the team, Ruben puts his manager in a tough spot - clearly not something we want to do to this manager.

Let's set the scene: it's the top of the 8th. The Phillies are down 4-2. Ryan Howard draws a leadoff walk, and Charlie Manuel pinch runs for Howard with Martinez. This is an obvious mistake - Howard's run is not the tying or go-ahead run (it's not that his run is meaningless - it's just not paramount to get that run across), and simple math tells you that it's likely Howard's spot would come up in a key situation. If of the next 8 batters, 5 or fewer make outs, Howard's up.

Sure enough, Howard's spot in the lineup does come back around with 2 outs, runners on 1st & 2nd, in the bottom of the 9th. The ultimate clutch situation in which you'd want your "best hitter" to be at the plate. Instead, he's out of the game, and Martinez is the goat.

It's costly errors like these that happen several times a week and turn the Phillies from a fringe contender to a 100% non-playoff team. And I haven't even mentioned the Mayberry insertion (he could've pinch hit for Martinez) or the Kendrick pick-off (could've been Martinez running, the only thing he isn't awful at), which were equally-horrendous managerial decisions.

Their jobs aren't easy, but these mistakes, especially Ruben's, are beyond comprehension. This isn't a '19 year-old gets black-out drunk' mistake. This is a 'we should jump off this third-story roof into that baby pool' mistake. This is a 'Michael Martinez is on a Major League roster' mistake.