Claude Giroux's over/under for points this season: 52.5
Let's break it down: Over a 48 game season, Giroux would need to produce at a 1.1 ppg pace - something he did quite easily last season. Even a slight drop off in production could still see the new captain hit 53 points, but I have a number of reasons why he won't.
1) Shortened season = fewer minutes per game. The typical 4th line getting 5-6 minutes per night will change to 8-9, taking 30-60 seconds away from Giroux each night, adding up to 24-48 minutes less for the season. Considering Giroux scored 0.056 points per minute last season, that's 1.34-2.68 fewer points right there.
2) He has to stay healthy, which he failed to do last season (5 games due to concussion) and in Germany during the lockout. With concussion testing the way it is today, the fact that he's already had at least one, and the compact schedule, missing 5 or 6 games is easy to forecast and all but completely wipe out his chances of 53 points (he would need to score at 1.23 ppg if he missed 5 games - 101 point pace for 82 game season).
3) The loss of Jagr won't make a big difference as Schenn or Voracek will slot into the 1st right wing spot and likely play better. In order for Giroux to hit 53 points, he needs Scott Hartnell to be last year's Scott Hartnell - who shot at a ridiculous 15.8% clip. If Hartnell dips back to his career average in shot % and the new right winger plays anything short of exceptional, Giroux will have a hard time getting 53.
4) 2011-2012 was a unique season consisting of rookies up and down the lineup, allowing Giroux to be a minute-muncher and go-to in scoring situations. Those guys are now young veterans and will be counted on this season, cutting into Giroux's overall TOI but mostly PP time. Giroux amassed a ridiculous 32 PP assists last year, and that will be hard for him to duplicate ever again. Giroux spent 3:54 TOI during the PP last season, ranking him 10th among all players. It's hard to believe that number will be as high. Schenn, Voracek, Briere, Hartnell, Simmonds and Read are proven and capable PP guys, giving Laviolette a few reasons to give his best player some rest.
Also regarding the PP, the Flyers don't have a strong offensive defenseman to play quarterback. We've seen Mike Richards play from back there, and Giroux has the type of game to fit that role. It might not hurt or help the PP in general, but it should hurt Giroux's production being further from the net.
Overall, short season, potential for injury, and less time on ice in high-scoring situations will make Giroux's quest for 53 points in 48 games a really tough task. For even money, I'm all over the under. -CK
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