First Guessing: Covering 2nd Base Late in the Game

The Phillies blew a 7-1 lead yesterday. The tying run scored in such a manner that only the supremely frustrating Phillies could pull off: a first-to-home on a weak grounder to short.

Jimmy Rollins left his position to cover second on a David Wright steal. I damn near fell out of my seat when I saw Rollins retracing his steps as the ball trickled past his starting spot. Rollins should not have been covering second, nor should have Utley. Wright should have been given second base, even though he's the tying run in the 9th inning.

The count was 0-2. There were 2 outs. This was the end of the game, down to the final strike with the closer ready to bury Murphy with a fastball.

IF the pitch was a strike, it would either be game over or a ball in play.

IF the pitch was a ball, was Chooch even going to throw to second? The image above comes just after contact, and Chooch is on his knees. Normally, he pops out of his stance ready to throw, only to realize he doesn't have the ball. We see runners given second base all the time late in games, and I'm leaning towards that being Chooch's mindset here.

Let's consider a few factors:

• David Wright successfully steals bases at a 76% rate for his career, and was 11 for 12 this season going into that attempt. 
• If Wright were to be thrown out, it would be a disastrous, game-ending decision. He was probably confident in his chances.
• Papelbon has a turtle's pace to the plate.
• The pitch must be a ball (harder to throw someone out).
• Chooch has a career 28% caught stealing rate.

I'm estimating Wright steals that base successfully at least 85% of the time. That's being conservative.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon, who is having an All-Star caliber season as the closer, has two-strikes on an average hitter. Papelbon gets Murphy out in that spot the majority of the time.

By covering, Rollins increases Murphy's chance of getting a hit on a ball put in play, which is likely since there are two strikes and he'll be protecting (especially since he got caught looking his previous at-bat).

Ben Revere fails to pick up a slowly rolling baseball on perfectly manicured grass, allowing Wright to get from third to home. Ho hum.

We feel ya, Papelbon.

If the count is 0-0, throw the guy out. There's a much smaller likelihood that the ball is put in play. In that spot, you can't freely allow the tying run get into scoring position with two outs.

With an 0-2 count, let him have the base and get the hitter out. Fundamentals, playing the percentages, doing the little things - whatever you want to call it, the Phillies don't do it and it's one big reason they're three games under .500.