7 runs and 3 innings later, I had seen enough. Every pitch was roped. Every hit, out, and foul ball was hit hard. His command fell apart completely, leaving pitch after pitch up in the zone and out over the plate. Rockies hitters wore out the right-center gap all afternoon and each ball shot that way was on a line. No floaters or long fly balls that barely landed behind Revere - nope, they were all bullets.
Pettibone's last two outings have been poor, but they are only two outings and judgment must be reserved for a larger sample size. Despite today's unpleasant line, he still has a respectable 4.40 ERA and has posted high percentage of quality starts. So, the question is - just how good can Jonathan Pettibone be?
Jonathan Pettibone has the height, arm strength, and mental fortitude to get hitters out. He's at the stage of a pitcher's career when he must re-evaluate his arsenal and improve it. His current stuff earned him a Major League stint and showed fans and management that there is long-term potential in his arm. But, it isn't good enough to be a contributor on a contender. Don't tell me what his ERA or WHIP is. Don't tell me he's a gamer for getting out of an infinite number of jams.
Let me know when he can throw a pitch that breaks in to a lefty - because without one, he's a spot starter at best.
Pettibone's fastball has above average movement, and when combined with a 91-92mph velocity, it makes for a quality pitch. The devastating two-seamers that start eight inches off the plate and backdoor to get the outside corner are typically high-80s. Pettibone doesn't throw this Brandon Webb-type two-seamer, but this pitch he throws to McCutcheon is 93mph with excellent downward action and slight bend back towards the plate. It's a difficult pitch to hit that a hitter must respect in all counts.
As he develops better command and fractionally higher velocity and greater horizontal movement, this can be a plus pitch.
Pitching off his fastball, Pettibone's changeup has similar action to the two-seamer with nearly identical horizontal break and sizable 7mph gap in velocity. With a 1-1 count and a man on base, Pettibone makes an excellent pitch to Brandon Phillips, starting a changeup off the plate and getting an aggressive swinger to not only chase but also open up early and pop up.
Pettibone can potentially feature two plus pitches that break in to righties and can be thrown in any count to any batter. This is a positive start.
But that's about where the ga-ga ends. His two other pitches are really one pitch at varying speeds, which is exemplified by PitchF/X (a computer designed to be extremely precise on pitches) being unable to distinguish between the cutter and the slider. The Pitch Movement Chart showcases how the cutter doesn't cut and the slider doesn't slide. They are vertical drop pitches only, and that is not good enough.
I can only claim the above pitch as a cutter and not a slider by it's velocity (87mph). In theory, that is the perfect location and result for a cutter. Up and in to a righty, break a bat and get a pop-up. But the cutter needs to start a few more inches inside and come back to that spot.
Another cutter (I know it's 3-2, but can we set up not right down the middle? The pitcher hits his spot and it's the worst spot to throw the pitch), this pitch has a quick, late drop to it that could be effective as... dare I say it... a sinker! That's all this pitch is. It's a sinker. But as a cutter, it will be thrown higher in the zone and the slider will be thrown lower.
If Pettibone is unable to develop a pitch that breaks in to righties, he should become a two-system pitcher. The first is a fastball/changeup system and the second is a sinker/slider system. The big change he needs to make, aside from keeping the sinker down in the zone, is slowing down the slider/making it a hard curveball.
It's key to retain a certain velocity gap with pitches that have similar action. Currently, if a batter swings as if the pitch is a cutter/sinker, but it's actually a slider, he can still make quality contact. A few mph slower with a bit more movement both vertically and horizontally, the slider can be an effective out pitch for a hitter looking or seeing sinker.
With that, Pettibone has four pitches with average movement and average velocity. I believe he can become a #3 pitcher, but only if he makes significant changes to his game. If he keeps the same pitches that he currently throws and just tries to improve them, he will be a #5 starter in the mold of the former Kyle Kendrick.
Ideally, Pettibone would work on these changes in AAA and focus on his command and plan of attack. With the Phillies, he'll always have a main focus of getting guys out right now, which forces him to throw what he's comfortable with - and that is the type of development track that yields spot starters who never make long-term improvements.
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